TSP Nerd — TSP Allocation Dashboard
Equity Curves
FULL EQUITY — BOTH SIGNALS CLEAR
Both signals clear — momentum runs in S Fund
combined verdict
Full G Fund only when both signals flash bear. Either alone is informational (Watch state). Updated 2026-06-04 22:25
Current Allocation
Monthly Transfers
of 2 used
2 remaining
Full budget available · G moves are free
Transfer Deadline
Strategy Performance
Growth of $100,000 since 2010
Total Return
1369%
16yr backtest
Sharpe Ratio
1.206
risk-adjusted
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
vs C: -33.7%
AI Research Council
Four agents analyze and debate every Monday. Momentum drives allocation -- agents provide market context.
The strategy signals 100% C Fund this week — the AND-gate defense is not triggered (VIX/VIX3M < 0.95 and SPY > SMA200), so the momentum ensemble stays fully invested in large-cap equity exposure; hold the allocation and ignore the noise.
Market Commentary
Markets remain in a Bull-Stable regime (classifier confidence 1.00) with C +14.9% and S +18.2% over six months, but the council's debate was unusually sharp on what that means. The Macro Analyst argues breadth leadership in S Fund is the dominant alpha and wants an S-tilt with 10-15% G/F ballast for rebalancing optionality; the Sentiment Analyst reads the WSJ/FT 'wall of worry' cluster as contrarian-bullish and favors a C-heavy/S-tilted blend; the Risk Manager dissents from both, holding that regime-classifier confidence of 1.00 after a +18% small-cap run is itself a late-cycle red flag and that 0.85 equity correlation makes C/S/I one trade in stress. All three agree F Fund duration is uninvestable here — the bond 'termite' thesis and -1.7% three-month drawdown corroborate the Warsh-trap macro setup. The strategy's AND-gate (VIX/VIX3M >= 0.95 AND SPY < SMA200) is not triggered, so the rules-based signal is full equity exposure concentrated in C Fund this week. The genuine tension: Macro and Sentiment both flagged that 100% C forfeits the breadth premium S is delivering, while Risk countered that concentration is fine because correlation makes diversification illusory anyway. The overlooked tail — flagged by Macro — is a Warsh-trap scenario where BOTH stocks and bonds repricing simultaneously leaves no hiding place, which 100% C does not hedge.
Where the Agents Disagree
Position: 100% C concentration is structurally wrong — S Fund's +18.2% six-month and +3.1% weekly leadership is the dominant alpha driver, and the Warsh-trap regime favors cyclicals; the equity sleeve should tilt to S with 10-15% G/F ballast for rebalancing optionality
Counter: Risk Manager argues that 0.85 average equity correlation makes C/S/I effectively one trade in a drawdown, so the breadth premium is illusory and concentration in the most liquid sleeve (C) is operationally cleaner
Arbiter: Macro's breadth argument is empirically correct on trailing returns, but the strategy is a rules-based momentum ensemble with an AND-gate, not a discretionary tilt engine — overriding the signal to add S would require abandoning the system that produced 1294% / Sharpe 1.195. Macro's view is the right second-order critique but does not justify a deviation this week.
Position: Wall-of-worry sentiment with rising tape is contrarian-bullish; cross-sectional dispersion (C +14.9% vs S +18.2%) shows alpha is alive even at high correlation, so a C-heavy/S-tilted blend captures the regime better than pure concentration
Counter: Risk Manager replies that the wall-of-worry heuristic requires retail to be UNDERINVESTED — which TSP and institutional flow data do not confirm — and that small-cap leadership at this stage of the cycle has historically preceded volatility regime breaks within 2-4 months
Arbiter: Risk's reflexivity point is the sharper one — sentiment indicators can flip from contrarian-bullish to confirmatory-bearish without warning, and the 50% 4-week / 50% 13-week accuracy track record argues for humility about reading the sentiment gap directionally. Sentiment's blend recommendation is reasonable but again does not override a triggered signal.
Position: Regime classifier confidence of 1.00 after a +14.9% C / +18.2% S six-month run is a textbook late-cycle signature, not a stability signal; the AND-gate is a lagging trigger that will not protect against a gap-down driven by geopolitical catalysts
Counter: Macro and Sentiment both note that the wall-of-worry sentiment and broad participation historically extend bull runs, and that a triggered defensive gate is precisely the mechanism designed to handle stress when it actually arrives
Arbiter: Risk's critique of regime-classifier overconfidence is well-taken and the geopolitical tail (Iran reopening, sanctions, supply-chain fragmentation) is real — but the AND-gate's value is its discipline, not its precision. The strategy accepts gap-down risk in exchange for not whipsawing on every late-cycle worry; this week the signal is full C and the system stays the course.
Where They Agree
- F Fund deserves zero allocation — duration is uninvestable under the Warsh-trap / fiscal-dominance regime, corroborated by -1.7% 3-month drawdown
- Bull-Stable regime with broad C/S participation supports a risk-on posture
- Tape-vs-sentiment gap (WSJ/FT 'wall of worry') reduces near-term crash probability and historically extends bull runs
- AND-gate is not triggered this week — no defensive G allocation warranted
Risks to Watch
- Warsh-trap scenario — Fed structurally unable to cut while long-end repriced, causing simultaneous C and F drawdown (no hiding place)
- Small-cap (S Fund) rollover after +18.2% six-month leadership, historically a 2-4 month precursor to volatility regime breaks
- VIX gap-up from geopolitical catalyst (Iran, sanctions, supply-chain) that the lagging AND-gate cannot front-run
- Reflexivity risk in sentiment — if the wall-of-worry capitulates and retail turns bullish (score 18 → 60+), that marks late-cycle exhaustion within 3-6 months
- 0.85 equity correlation means C/S/I behave as one asset in stress — diversification across equity sleeves offers limited downside protection
Individual Analyses
Macro Analyst
Fed policy, inflation, yield curves
Bull-Stable regime with strong domestic equity momentum and contained volatility supports a pro-cyclical tilt toward C and S funds. Bonds face headwinds from sticky inflation and Fed-cut constraints, while international exposure is losing relative momentum despite solid 6-month gains. Geopolitical noise remains elevated but has not translated into market stress — stay risk-on but monitor Iran/oil scenarios as the primary tail.
Sentiment Analyst
VIX, put/call ratios, fund flows
Sentiment indicators paint a worried investor base (K-shaped economy chatter, recession calls, bond 'termite' warnings) against a tape that keeps grinding higher with broad C/S participation and contained volatility — a classic wall-of-worry configuration. International momentum is cooling (I Fund 3M -0.6%) while domestic breadth holds, suggesting flows are rotating toward US equity rather than de-risking. Net read: mildly positive sentiment score with a contrarian-bullish flag, tempered by a low-confidence stance given that my last contrarian-bearish call was wrong in the same direction.
Risk Manager
VaR, correlations, tail risk
Commentary week — honoring AND-gate signal (VIX/VIX3M < 0.95 and SPY > SMA200 = full risk-on into C). Concentration is acceptable given the 0.85 correlation crisis makes C/S/I effectively one trade; C-Fund offers the lowest vol of the equity sleeve (10.3% ann.) so it is the rational expression. Primary risks are sentiment-divergence reversal and geopolitical tail events, but the regime-gated framework will defensively rotate to G if SPY breaks SMA200 — trust the system.
Strategy Arbiter
Synthesizes into recommendation
Markets remain in a Bull-Stable regime (classifier confidence 1.00) with C +14.9% and S +18.2% over six months, but the council's debate was unusually sharp on what that means. The Macro Analyst argues breadth leadership in S Fund is the dominant alpha and wants an S-tilt with 10-15% G/F ballast for rebalancing optionality; the Sentiment Analyst reads the WSJ/FT 'wall of worry' cluster as contrarian-bullish and favors a C-heavy/S-tilted blend; the Risk Manager dissents from both, holding that regime-classifier confidence of 1.00 after a +18% small-cap run is itself a late-cycle red flag and that 0.85 equity correlation makes C/S/I one trade in stress. All three agree F Fund duration is uninvestable here — the bond 'termite' thesis and -1.7% three-month drawdown corroborate the Warsh-trap macro setup. The strategy's AND-gate (VIX/VIX3M >= 0.95 AND SPY < SMA200) is not triggered, so the rules-based signal is full equity exposure concentrated in C Fund this week. The genuine tension: Macro and Sentiment both flagged that 100% C forfeits the breadth premium S is delivering, while Risk countered that concentration is fine because correlation makes diversification illusory anyway. The overlooked tail — flagged by Macro — is a Warsh-trap scenario where BOTH stocks and bonds repricing simultaneously leaves no hiding place, which 100% C does not hedge.
Council last met: 2026-05-24